It is a skill that is acquired at an early age and gradually strengthened through many life experiences. Generalized imitation is the learned ability to perform behaviors that are similar to behaviors observed or described, even when performance is delayed. The difference between imitation and contagion is not merely one of semantics. A better model is generalized imitation, which is well studied in the psychological literature 9 and can help explain the increased likelihood of people engaging in behaviors similar to those they have been made aware of or actually observed. Essentially, contagion models an outcome-when someone engages in a behavior, there is a probability that someone else may do the same-but it does not describe the behavioral mechanism for the spread of the behavior. 8 Behaviors, however, are not diseases that can spread on contact. When applied to behavior, “contagion” is a metaphor borrowed from epidemiology to explain how behaviors can spread across a group of people. The theory does not, for example, provide information on what factors might influence another person to commit a mass shooting or how the occurrence of a mass shooting can set the occasion for someone to commit a similar act. 7Īlthough understanding contagion allows for some degree of prediction that when one event occurs, a similar event is more likely to occur in the near future, it affords only prediction regarding temporal contiguity. 5,6 There is now evidence that when a mass shooting occurs, there is a temporary increase in the probability of another event within the next 13 days on average. Contagion has been documented across a variety of other behaviors, including airplane hijackings, 2 smoking cessation, 3 and binge eating, 4 and has been well researched in relation to suicide. In the example of mass shootings, a contagion effect would be said to exist if a single mass shooting incident increased the likelihood of other instances of mass shootings in the near future. This effect suggests that behaviors can be “contagious” and spread across a population. Recently a contagion effect, similar to a “copycat” effect, has been suggested in mass shootings. Although there are many variables responsible for a mass shooting, and each instance is immediately precipitated by different events, the commonality is that a significant number of individuals are killed during the event. In addition to public massacres such as the shooting in an Orlando, Florida, nightclub in 2016, these figures include mass shootings related to gang activity or family slayings. 1 As of 2015, a mass shooting resulting in the death of four or more people occurred approximately every 12.5 days. Despite being home to only 5% of the world’s population, roughly 31% of the world’s mass shootings have occurred in the United States. Mass shootings occur worldwide but are a particular problem in the United States.
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